The Magic word " IF " this is how if is so important to racers getting into the chase

Johnny Mallonee
@johnny-mallonee
14 years ago
3,259 posts

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- With only one race remaining until the 12-driver Chase for the Sprint Cup is set, eight drivers have clinched a top-10 spot -- Jimmie Johnson , Kyle Busch , Carl Edwards , Matt Kenseth , Jeff Gordon , Kevin Harvick , Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman . Brad Keselowski , with three victories, has clinched at least a wild card berth. He remains eligible to earn a top-10 spot.

After Saturday night's race, the top 10 drivers make up the first part of the 12-driver Chase. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 12. The wild card tiebreaker is points position.

Only three spots remain. And thanks to the wild card factor -- which is in its inaugural year -- a whopping 14 drivers remain mathematically eligible.

In terms of drivers outside the top 10, positions 11-23 are all mathematically eligible for a Chase nod. In 2005, seven drivers outside the top 10 still had a mathematical chance, the previous high going into Richmond.

A tale of the tape of the 14:

Dale Earnhardt Jr .

Earnhardt is currently 25 points ahead of 11th place. Regardless of any other driver's finish, Earnhardt will clinch if he finishes:

  • 20th or better
  • 21st or better and leads at least one lap
  • 22nd or better and leads the most laps

Tony Stewart

Stewart is currently 23 points ahead of 11th place. Regardless of any other driver's finish, Stewart will clinch if he finishes:

  • 18th or better
  • 19th or better and leads at least one lap
  • 20th or better and leads the most laps

Denny Hamlin :

With a win, he's in. Hamlin doesn't have to win, though. If he stays ahead of all one-win drivers, and there are no other two-win drivers inside the top 20, he's in the Chase. Also, if Keselowski does vault into the top 10, Hamlin could still make the Chase if there is a two-win driver from 11th to 20th as long as he's higher in points than any other one-win driver.

A.J. Allmendinger

Allmendinger is where the wild card drama starts to ratchet up. Points be damned. A win is the only thing that matters for him, and a number of other drivers. He'll need a win and movement up the points to nab the tie-breaker. He finished seventh at Richmond in April.

Clint Bowyer

Of the winless drivers, Bowyer might be the best bet. Bowyer won here in 2008, and has an average finish of 9.5. He needs a win, and some help.

Greg Biffle

One of six winless drivers who won in 2010, Biffle's best Richmond finish was third in 2005. He needs a win, and some help.

Martin Truex Jr .

Two of his past four finishes this season have been in the top five. His best Richmond finish is fifth in 2008. He needs a win, and some help.

Kasey Kahne

Kahne, who needs a win and some help, won at Richmond in 2005, his first career victory.

Joey Logano

Needs a win and help. His best Richmond finish is fourth in this race last season.

Mark Martin

Needs a win and help; he won at Richmond in 1990.

Paul Menard

Win, and he's in -- pretty simple. His finishes at Richmond haven't been so easy. His best: 16th in 2007.

Marcos Ambrose

If he wins and gets into the top 20, he's in. Two of his past three Richmond finishes were in the top 10.

Juan Montoya

Needs a win and help. Best finish was sixth in May of last year.

David Ragan

If he wins, and gets into the top 20, he's in. He finished fourth in April, and third in 2007.

The Guys at Race Win set up late last nite putting this scene together


updated by @johnny-mallonee: 12/05/16 04:02:07PM
Johnny Mallonee
@johnny-mallonee
14 years ago
3,259 posts
count how many times the word --IF-- is used
Dave Fulton
@dave-fulton
14 years ago
9,138 posts

Johnny,

It must have taken a number of lawyer, lottery andaccountant types to figure this out... I am reminded, of course, of the famous Rudyard Kipling poem:

Rudyard Kipling
If

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!




--
"Any Day is Good for Stock Car Racing"
Tim Leeming
@tim-leeming
14 years ago
3,119 posts
Johnny, brilliantly written and brilliantly calculated. No wonder you beat in Savannah by those four inches way back when. You calculating devil you. Great job.


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What a change! It's been awhile since I've checked in and I'm quite surprised. It may take me awhile to figure it our but first look it's really great.

Dennis Andrews
@dennis-andrews
14 years ago
835 posts
Don't remember the grade and could not do the whole thing now but I had to recite it in school to. It is one poem title and author I will always remember.